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The potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Joshua Eli Cinner 1 Iain Caldwell 1 Lauric Thiault 2 John Ben Julia Blanchard 3 Marta Coll 4 Amy Diedrich 5 Tyler Eddy 6 Jason Everett 7 Christian Folberth 8 Didier Gascuel 9 Jerome Guiet 10 Georgina Gurney 1 Ryan Heneghan 11 Jonas Jägermeyr 12 Narriman Jiddawi 13 Rachael Lahari John Kuange Wenfeng Liu 14 Olivier Maury 15 Christoph Müller 16 Camilla Novaglio 3 Juliano Palacios-Abrantes 17 Colleen Petrik 18 Ando Rabearisoa 19 Derek Tittensor 20 Andrew Wamukota 21 Richard Pollnac 22 
Abstract : Abstract Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, and when they are, it is often at a national scale, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries. Our study reveals three key findings: First, we find that the overall potential losses to fisheries is higher than potential losses to agriculture, but there is substantial within-country variability. Second, while more than two-thirds of locations will bear a double burden of potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing a double burden. Third, lower socioeconomic status communities are more likely to experience potential impacts than higher socioeconomic status communities.
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https://hal-agrocampus-ouest.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03670105
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Submitted on : Tuesday, May 17, 2022 - 11:21:00 AM
Last modification on : Monday, June 20, 2022 - 10:37:46 AM

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Joshua Eli Cinner, Iain Caldwell, Lauric Thiault, John Ben, Julia Blanchard, et al.. The potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities. 2022. ⟨hal-03670105⟩

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